rates of scoring – the odds ratio method and the Poisson distribution

this was motivated by how to estimate expected goals scored in the recent World Cup, based on runsgoals-scored and runsgoals-allowed rates versus average competition. In other words, when Germany (great offense, great defense) plays Brazil (great offense, great defense), how do you estimate the number of goals each team will score? Suppose the scoring distribution … More rates of scoring – the odds ratio method and the Poisson distribution

the most informative game – information theory in baseball

in information theory, information content is -log2 (p) where p is the probability and log2 is the base-2 logarithm. for each batting event (not including stolen bases) in the retrosheet events table I computed the probability for the event to occur and used this to compute the information content. The probability for the event to … More the most informative game – information theory in baseball